Hormuz Blocked, Brent $112, Supreme Court Overturns Tariffs

Published: March 30, 2026  |  Weekly Recap

Last week (KW13) escalated beyond what many thought possible: The Strait of Hormuz was partially blocked, Brent crude surged to $112 per barrel — the highest level since 2022 — and the US Supreme Court overturned key presidential tariff powers in a historic ruling. Here's my breakdown of the key developments and what they mean for hard-asset and dividend investors.

1. Hormuz Crisis: Strait of Hormuz Partially Blocked

The Iran escalation from week 12 intensified further in KW13. Iran's Revolutionary Guards intercepted two tankers in the western lane of the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, temporarily blocking shipping traffic through one of the two navigation channels. Several shipping companies — including Frontline and Euronav — temporarily withdrew their tankers from the region. The US Navy deployed a second Carrier Strike Group to the Persian Gulf. This represents the most serious blockade of the Hormuz corridor since 1988.

Insurance premiums for tankers in the Persian Gulf have exploded to record levels, and several shipping companies are already rerouting vessels via the Cape of Good Hope.

• Direct impact: Brent crude rose from $108 to $112 — another 4% gain after last week's 12% surge
• Tanker rates: VLCC rates surged above $95,000/day — a level last seen during the COVID dislocations of 2020
• Insurance premiums: War Risk Premiums doubled again week-over-week
• LNG spot: Asian LNG spot prices at $16.20/mmBtu — up 12% week-over-week

2. Brent at $112 — Highest Since 2022

$112 for Brent crude marks the highest level since June 2022. In just two weeks, the oil price has surged over 16% — from $96 before the Iran escalation to current levels. The risk premium on oil has structurally increased, and even with de-escalation, prices are unlikely to return to pre-crisis levels.

For upstream producers, $112 Brent means record cashflows. Break-even costs for most major producers sit at $40–55 per barrel — meaning at $112 Brent, $57–72 of margin per barrel flows directly into free cash flow. This has immediate implications for dividends and buybacks:

• Upstream winners: Devon Energy (+4.8% WoW), Equinor (+5.2%), Petrobras (+6.1%), Aker BP (+3.9%)
• Special dividends: At sustained high prices, special dividends in Q2 are near-certain — Devon Energy and Equinor have historically paid specials above $90 Brent
• Shipping beneficiaries: Higher oil prices + longer routes = perfect storm for tanker rates
• Consumer impact: Gasoline prices in Europe above €2.00/liter — political pressure for SPR releases mounting

3. Supreme Court Overturns Tariffs — Historic Ruling

The US Supreme Court ruled 6-3 on Thursday that key presidential tariff powers are unconstitutional. Specifically, the court found that blanket tariffs imposed without Congressional approval violate the Commerce Clause. The ruling affects tariffs on Chinese imports, steel, and aluminum imposed since 2018 under Section 232 and Section 301.

This decision has far-reaching implications for global trade and markets:

• Trade volumes: Reduced tariffs would boost global trade flows — positive for shipping and container rates
• Inflation: Lower import prices could dampen inflation — positive for Fed policy and potential rate cuts
• Chinese stocks: Hang Seng responded Friday with +3.2% — Chinese exporters benefit directly
• US steel producers: Under pressure — Cleveland-Cliffs and US Steel each lost over 5%
• Container shipping: Hapag-Lloyd and ZIM reacted positively — higher trade volumes = higher container rates

4. Market Reaction: Indices, Gold & Shipping Rates

Markets in KW13 were shaped by two opposing forces: the Hormuz crisis weighed on the broad market, while the Supreme Court tariff ruling provided relief for trade and consumer stocks. Hard-asset sectors remained the clear winners.

• S&P 500: -1.8% (WoW) — better than KW12 (-4.2%), but still under pressure from energy cost concerns
• DAX: -0.9% — relatively resilient on export optimism after tariff ruling
• Gold: $3,240/oz (+1.9%) — new all-time high, driven by geopolitical uncertainty and safe-haven flows
• Tanker stocks: Frontline (+12.5%), Scorpio Tankers (+14.8%), International Seaways (+11.3%) — best week of the year
• Baltic Dry Index: +8.2% — rising demand for alternative routes pushes bulk rates higher
• Mining: Barrick Gold (+7.3%), Newmont (+6.1%) — gold miners benefiting from ATH in gold

5. Outlook for Week 14

The coming week will be shaped by:

• Hormuz developments: Will the blockade persist or will there be diplomatic progress? Any change could move oil prices by $5–10
• OPEC+ response: No emergency meeting announced yet — but at $112 Brent, pressure to ease production cuts is mounting
• US Congress tariff legislation: Following the Supreme Court ruling, Congress must establish a new legal framework for trade tariffs — political debate begins immediately
• US jobs data (Friday): NFP report — a strong labor market would further dampen rate cut expectations
• Q1 earnings season: First major banks report — important for overall market sentiment
• Gold: New ATH at $3,240 — with continued uncertainty, $3,300+ is possible