Investor & Analyst | Hard Assets, Dividends, Shipping | MB Capital Strategies
Marco analyzes shipping and dividend stocks focused on hard assets. All content based on public data and personal opinion. Not investment advice.
KW23 delivers two major dividend events from the shipping portfolio: CMB.Tech ex-dividend June 10 ($0.64/share, Q1 profit $368.8M) and TORM dividend $0.70/share (June 11). On top: OPEC+ decides on production increases June 7 — directly impacting VLCC rates for H2 2026. Marco Bozem's investor perspective.
CMB.Tech (CMBT, Oslo Bors) is currently my largest public position (~3.7%, TR + Scalable). The company — formerly Euronav, now a diversified multi-cluster tanker operator — reported Q1 2026 results on June 2, 2026:
ASSESSMENT: This is a strong Q1 — $0.64 on a share trading at ~$18-20 represents ~3.2-3.6% for a single quarter. Annualized, that would imply 12-14% yield if Q1 is representative. I expect Q2-Q4 to be somewhat lower as VLCC rates are moderate, not at boom levels. But even at a normalized 8-10% annualized yield, CMB.Tech remains a core holding in the shipping cluster.
What distinguishes CMB.Tech from pure VLCC plays: the company also operates chemical tankers and is investing in ammonia carriers (green shipping transition). This provides optionality beyond the current cycle. Full analysis: CMB.Tech Ex-Dividend Analysis →
On June 1, 2026, OPEC+ announced a production increase of +411,000 bbl/day for June. The June 7 meeting will decide on July increases. This is the key variable for VLCC rates in H2 2026:
Positive scenario (OPEC+ moderately increases): More Middle East crude → more VLCC demand on the AG-China route → VLCC rates stable or slightly higher. Positive for CMB.Tech, Frontline, DHT.
Negative scenario (OPEC+ aggressively increases): Brent falls further (already -17% in May to ~$91). Low crude prices = lower oil demand medium-term + potential production cuts by individual OPEC members = VLCC demand uncertainty.
THESIS: OPEC+ operates in a dilemma — too much production pushes price below the fiscal breakeven of most members (Saudi Arabia needs ~$80-85/bbl for a balanced state budget). I expect further increases to remain moderate and Brent to stabilize in the $85-95 range — a level that supports tanker cash flows without suppressing demand.
TORM (TRMD) pays a $0.70/share dividend on June 11 for Q1. This is less than $0.85/share in Q1 2025 — directly reflecting weaker TCE rates ($44,800/day Q1 2026 vs. $55,200/day Q1 2025, -19%).
Still: at an entry price of $25, this quarterly dividend represents an annualized yield of ~11%. This demonstrates that TORM's variable dividend policy still delivers attractive yields even in moderate markets — because product tanker breakeven costs sit at only ~$15,000-18,000/day and $44,800 remains well above that threshold.
My TORM position: holding, no changes. Balance sheet remains strong (Net Debt/EBITDA under 2.0x), the variable dividend is transparent, and the product tanker market remains structurally sound (low orderbook, refinery arbitrage flows). Best Tanker Stocks →
FLEX LNG currently trades at an implied yield of ~9.2% based on the quarterly $0.75/share dividend ($3.00 annualized / ~$32.50 share price). The time-charter model means this dividend is highly secured until ~2029-2032, regardless of spot LNG market moves.
When is 9% yield on a "secure" dividend attractive? When the risk-free rate (10-year US Treasury ~4.5%) maintains its distance. The spread of 9% - 4.5% = 4.5% risk premium for a company with multi-year TC coverage — this appears fair to attractive. If the risk-free rate falls (Fed rate cuts), FLEX LNG becomes more attractive. That's a positive catalyst. See: Time Charter vs Spot Charter →
No transactions in KW23 (as of June 4). Shipping positions maintained:
Investor & Analyst | Hard Assets, Dividends, Shipping | MB Capital Strategies
Marco analyzes shipping and dividend stocks focused on hard assets. All content based on public data and personal opinion. Not investment advice.