Portfolio Update November 2025: Income & Transparency
Monthly transparency report: Marco's hard asset dividend portfolio in November 2025. Key positions: CMB.Tech, BHP, Thungela Resources. Sector focus: Mining & Shipping.
Q3 results review + autumn dividends. Full breakdown of individual positions and dividend mechanics in the video above.
More Oil & Gas: Full guide: Best Upstream Oil & Gas Stocks 2026 — Devon, APA, Var Energi, Coterra and more with dividend analysis.
Index: The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) tracks global bulk shipping demand — a key leading indicator for commodity cycles and shipping stocks.
Related: Learn about Bulk Carrier Stocks — how Capesize, Panamax and Supramax vessels differ and why size matters for dividends.
Calculate your own YOC: Free Dividend Calculators → | Hard Asset Strategy Guide
Monthly update with dividends and positions.
Related Portfolio Updates:
- Portfolio Update April 2026
- Portfolio Update March 2026
- Portfolio Update February 2026
- 10 High-Yield Dividend Stocks 2026
- TORM (TRMD) Dividend Analysis 2026 — $0.70 June 11
- Shipping Dividend Double Payday June 11
- CMB.Tech June 2026 — $0.64 Ex-Dividend (Largest Position)
- FLEX LNG Q1 2026: 19 Consecutive Dividends, $0.75/Share
November 2025 Portfolio Review: US Election Impact on Hard Assets
November 2025 was shaped by the US election and its aftermath. "Trump Trade" dynamics affected different parts of my hard asset portfolio differently — here's the breakdown:
Election Aftermath: Sector-by-Sector
Upstream Oil/Gas: Initially sold off (expectations of more US production, less regulation = lower prices). But within 2 weeks, recovered as physical demand data outweighed sentiment-driven selling. My Devon and Coterra positions bounced back strongly.
Pipelines (Enbridge, TC Energy): Stable. US election doesn't directly affect Canadian midstream infrastructure. The consistent dividend payments continued regardless.
Gold Miners: Sold off hard with dollar strength. This is the typical election-month pattern — USD rallies, gold corrects. For long-term holders with <5% portfolio allocation to gold miners, these corrections are noise.
Shipping: Continued its strong performance. US-China trade policy uncertainty initially pressured container shipping, but tankers and LNG carriers benefited from energy security premium.
November Dividend Income
~EUR 74 net in November 2025 — lighter month. The stronger months are March, June, September, December (when most Q3/Q4 dividends pay). November is the "gap month" in my dividend calendar.
The Trump Trade and Hard Assets: Why Policy Matters Less Than Fundamentals
The "Trump Trade" narrative assumed: more US oil production = lower prices = worse for energy stocks. My experience in November 2025 challenged this assumption:
- US production increases are slow: Even with deregulation, new US shale production takes 12-18 months to materially affect global supply. The immediate market move on "Trump = more production" was sentiment-driven, not supply-driven.
- Tanker demand benefits from more production: More US LNG exports and crude exports = more shipping demand. A "drill baby drill" administration is bullish for energy shipping, not just bearish for oil prices.
- Pipeline companies love infrastructure-friendly presidents: Enbridge Keystone expansion permits, TC Energy's TMX project — a deregulatory administration accelerates midstream growth capex. This is net positive for pipelines.
The November 2025 lesson: political headlines create short-term noise. Hard asset fundamentals — free cashflow, dividend coverage, reserve life — determine long-term outcomes. In November, I used the gold miner correction as a chance to check position sizing, not panic-sell.
Building the 2026 Dividend Income Roadmap
November is when I annually review the coming year's expected dividend income by position. Based on Q3 2025 results, 2026 guidance, and current TCE contracts:
- Shipping positions (variable): projected 8-12% yield on cost basis assuming TCE rates stay above $25,000/day (MR tankers) and $80,000/day (LNG) — reasonable given current contracted coverage
- Pipeline positions: 5-7% yield on cost, growing 2-5% annually (Enbridge guidance: ~3% annual dividend growth)
- Gold miners: 2-3% yield on cost, upside from $2,500-3,000 gold scenario
- Coal miners (Thungela, Yancoal): 8-15% variable — build around expected commodity cycle, not worst-case
November 2025 → December 2025: Portfolio Positioning Ahead of Year-End
November 2025 marked the entry into year-end positioning territory. Here is what I was thinking about and how the portfolio ended up entering December:
- Tax-loss harvesting pressure: November is when institutional investors clean up losers for year-end. This creates temporary dips in high-yield stocks that have had rough years — a DRIP opportunity if the underlying business is intact.
- Q4 dividend announcements: Most tanker and shipping companies announce Q4 dividends in November/December for January payment. The range of outcomes for variable-dividend stocks defines the Q1 income outlook.
- Commodity cycle positioning: Late 2025 showed early signals of shipping market softening. I used November to reduce concentration in the most rate-sensitive names and increase allocation to time-charter covered positions like FLEX LNG.
The December setup going into 2026: leaner on spot-rate exposure, higher weighting on contracted cashflow. That shift proved well-timed when tanker rates normalized in early 2026.
See also: December 2025 Portfolio Update | FLEX LNG Q1 2026 Dividend Analysis | Best High-Yield Dividend Stocks 2026 | Debitum P2P: 11% XIRR, Risks & Verdict